Rate Update 5.8

Key Points

-There is optimism among fed officials that the current fed funds rate will help bring down inflation down to the 2% target.

-Markets are pricing in the next rate cut later this year between September and December.

The two big events last week, rate decision and jobs report, came out favorably for our rate sheets as Powell said that rate hikes were not being discussed and new jobs added were softer than expected.

FNCL 6.5 Coupon, July

Interest Rate Probability

Currently, the most probable meetings to have rate cuts are September and December, with September at a 50/50 chance. A lot can happen with economic data and global events before then, so we’ll continue to keep an eye on this.

Looking Ahead

We expect the optimism to continue. Initial Jobless Claims is the early data point, released at 8:30, and it is expected to climb slightly to 212K as reports of additional layoffs following minimum-wage increases are likely to boost claims. With this being the lone data point of the day, it is very possible that a surprise reading could move markets. 

Have a great Day!